ATP tennis predict — Fajing Sun vs Semen Pankin

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Fajing Sun

China

46.70%

Semen Pankin

Russia

53.30%

Average Odds

1.72 / 2.04

Market probability

54.26% / 45.74%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1330.3 Elo 1587.5

1527.6 Elo (surface) 1585.8

76 Wins (Challenger) 8

75 Wins (surface) 8

6 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.643 Dominance ratio 1.017

322 Rank 424

29.8 Age 26.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Fajing Sun

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Semen Pankin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Fajing Sun Semen Pankin

1st Serve In %

56.1%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

60.4%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.4%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.8%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.39

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.2%

52.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.5%

69.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.3%

47.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.9%

27.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.3%

46.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Fajing Sun Semen Pankin

Break Points Saved %

53.6%

—

Break Points Converted %

32.3%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.5%

51.4%

Break Points Converted %

42.0%

33.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Fajing Sun 0 – 0 Semen Pankin

Hard Astana 4 challenger · 2026-08-12

R16

Fajing Sun #326

Semen Pankin #421

4-6 7-6 6-3

5 Aces 13

3 Double Faults 8

97 Service Points 129

55 First Serve In 51

34 First Serve Won 38

27 Second Serve Won 34

4 Break Points Saved 9

8 Break Points Faced 14

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-08-03

1. round

Fajing Sun #326

Semen Pankin #421

6-4 6-1

1 Aces 7

0 Double Faults 1

48 Service Points 59

36 First Serve In 33

25 First Serve Won 19

9 Second Serve Won 11

0 Break Points Saved 3

0 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.0

Fajing Sun vs Semen Pankin — Prediction