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Fajing Sun vs Roman Safiullin — Prediction

ATP Hard Hangzhou · 1. round 11:30

Predicted probability

Fajing Sun

China

23.37%

Roman Safiullin

Russia

76.63%

Average Odds

4.42  /  1.20

Market probability

21.35%  /  78.65%

Why This Prediction?

Roman Safiullin is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1928 vs 1630), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1806 vs 1638) and a stronger serve (69.4% vs 59.9% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1629.5 Elo 1928.1
1637.7 Elo (surface) 1806.4
7 Wins 102
7 Wins (surface) 62
6 Last 15 form 8
0 Head-to-head wins 0
0.771 Dominance ratio 1.185
314 Rank 102
30.0 Age 29.1
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Fajing Sun

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–5L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Roman Safiullin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–0L · 100.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Fajing Sun Roman Safiullin

1st Serve In %

56.1%
65.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.4%
74.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.3%
57.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.4%
27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.8%
51.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.39
0.61

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31
0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.2%
67.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.5%
70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.3%
55.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.9%
28.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.3%
52.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.43
0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14
0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Fajing Sun Roman Safiullin

Break Points Saved %

53.6%
67.6%

Break Points Converted %

32.3%
38.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.5%
71.0%

Break Points Converted %

42.0%
56.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Fajing Sun and Roman Safiullin have never played each other.

Fajing Sun — Last 10

W W L W L L W W L W

Roman Safiullin — Last 10

L L W L W L W W W W