ATP tennis predict — Fajing Sun vs Mees Rottgering

Challenger Hard Winnipeg challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Fajing Sun

China

32.10%

Mees Rottgering

Netherlands

67.90%

Average Odds

2.17 / 1.63

Market probability

42.89% / 57.11%

Why This Prediction?

Mees Rottgering is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1577 vs 1336), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1583 vs 1541) and a stronger return game (43.1% vs 42.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1336.3 Elo 1577.2

1541.3 Elo (surface) 1582.9

76 Wins (Challenger) 6

75 Wins (surface) 3

7 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.776 Dominance ratio 1.125

324 Rank 471

29.8 Age 19.0

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Fajing Sun

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Mees Rottgering

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-08.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Fajing Sun Mees Rottgering

1st Serve In %

56.1%

56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.4%

66.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.3%

47.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.4%

28.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.8%

51.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.2%

56.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.5%

69.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.3%

39.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.9%

26.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.3%

46.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Fajing Sun Mees Rottgering

Break Points Saved %

53.6%

62.2%

Break Points Converted %

32.3%

31.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.5%

48.5%

Break Points Converted %

42.0%

32.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Fajing Sun 0 – 0 Mees Rottgering

Hard Winnipeg challenger · 2026-07-21

1. round

Mees Rottgering #471

Fajing Sun #324

6-4 6-4

2 Aces 5

3 Double Faults 2

64 Service Points 95

37 First Serve In 61

25 First Serve Won 39

13 Second Serve Won 17

4 Break Points Saved 9

7 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.2

Fajing Sun vs Mees Rottgering — Prediction