ATP tennis predict — Fajing Sun vs Matthew Dellavedova

ATP Hard Hangzhou · qualification - round of 16 09:00

Predicted probability

Fajing Sun

China

71.91%

Matthew Dellavedova

Australia

28.09%

Average Odds

1.53 / 2.40

Market probability

61.07% / 38.93%

Why This Prediction?

Fajing Sun is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1612 vs 1445), a higher Elo rating (1602 vs 1456) and more wins on hard courts (81 vs 16).

Player Comparison

1602.2 Elo 1456.4

1611.6 Elo (surface) 1444.8

5 Wins 1

5 Wins (surface) 1

4 Last 15 form 1

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.771 Dominance ratio 0.746

314 Rank 270

30.0 Age 26.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Fajing Sun

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Matthew Dellavedova

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-09-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Fajing Sun Matthew Dellavedova

1st Serve In %

56.1%

74.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.4%

61.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.3%

48.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.4%

25.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.8%

43.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.10

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.2%

74.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.5%

66.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.3%

51.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.9%

29.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.3%

45.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Fajing Sun Matthew Dellavedova

Break Points Saved %

53.6%

54.5%

Break Points Converted %

32.3%

61.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.5%

56.8%

Break Points Converted %

42.0%

43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Fajing Sun 0 – 0 Matthew Dellavedova

Hard Hangzhou · 2026-09-22

qualification - round of 16

Fajing Sun #314

Matthew Dellavedova #270

3-6 6-1 7-6

6 Aces 5

1 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

42 First Serve Won 47

15 Second Serve Won 18

0 Break Points Saved 8

2 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.4

Fajing Sun vs Matthew Dellavedova — Prediction