ATP tennis predict — Fajing Sun vs Kasidit Samrej

Challenger Hard Wuning 3 challenger · R16 04:00

Predicted probability

Fajing Sun

China

58.43%

Kasidit Samrej

Thailand

41.57%

Average Odds

1.45 / 2.60

Market probability

64.20% / 35.80%

Why This Prediction?

Fajing Sun is the favorite because he has the advantage of playing in his home country, fewer double faults per game (0.05 vs 0.24) and a stronger serve (59.9% vs 56.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1617.1 Elo 1666.5

1619.8 Elo (surface) 1645.1

83 Wins (Challenger) 47

82 Wins (surface) 47

7 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.079 Dominance ratio 1.155

303 Rank 397

30.0 Age 25.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Fajing Sun

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–6L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Kasidit Samrej

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-08-11.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Fajing Sun Kasidit Samrej

1st Serve In %

56.1%

56.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.4%

67.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.3%

41.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.4%

26.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.8%

49.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.46

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.6%

61.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.9%

75.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

59.3%

46.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.3%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.2%

53.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.63

Double Faults per Service Game

0.11

0.52

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Fajing Sun Kasidit Samrej

Break Points Saved %

54.4%

48.4%

Break Points Converted %

39.5%

46.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

65.2%

78.7%

Break Points Converted %

38.6%

38.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Fajing Sun 0 – 1 Kasidit Samrej

Hard Gwangju CH · 2025-04-21

Q1

Kasidit Samrej #404

Fajing Sun #289

6-7(2) 6-4 7-5

13 Aces 0

5 Double Faults 6

147 Service Points 120

76 First Serve In 81

41 First Serve Won 42

35 Second Serve Won 19

18 Break Points Saved 12

26 Break Points Faced 22

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Fajing Sun vs Kasidit Samrej — Prediction