ATP tennis predict — Fajing Sun vs Jie Cui

Challenger Hard Jinan challenger · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Fajing Sun

China

57.28%

Jie Cui

China

42.72%

Average Odds

2.14 / 1.62

Market probability

43.09% / 56.91%

Why This Prediction?

Fajing Sun is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1621 vs 1548), a higher Elo rating (1619 vs 1572) and a stronger serve (59.9% vs 57.7% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1618.9 Elo 1571.9

1620.7 Elo (surface) 1547.9

84 Wins (Challenger) 52

83 Wins (surface) 51

8 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.079 Dominance ratio 1.040

303 Rank 420

30.0 Age 28.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Fajing Sun

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–6L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Jie Cui

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-07-14.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Fajing Sun Jie Cui

1st Serve In %

56.1%

68.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.4%

67.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.3%

46.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.4%

30.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.8%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.49

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.7%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.7%

74.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

59.0%

48.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.3%

31.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.9%

46.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.63

Double Faults per Service Game

0.11

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Fajing Sun Jie Cui

Break Points Saved %

54.4%

52.3%

Break Points Converted %

39.5%

32.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

73.1%

56.5%

Break Points Converted %

38.3%

38.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Fajing Sun 0 – 1 Jie Cui

Hard Shanghai challenger · 2026-09-08

1. round

Jie Cui #454

Fajing Sun #323

7-5 6-4

6 Aces 6

0 Double Faults 0

61 Service Points 87

40 First Serve In 57

35 First Serve Won 33

12 Second Serve Won 17

2 Break Points Saved 6

2 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.2 Average Odds 1.6

Fajing Sun vs Jie Cui — Prediction