ATP tennis predict — Fajing Sun vs Hayato Matsuoka

Challenger Hard Astana 4 challenger · QF 08:00

Predicted probability

Fajing Sun

China

44.35%

Hayato Matsuoka

Japan

55.65%

Average Odds

2.18 / 1.63

Market probability

42.78% / 57.22%

Why This Prediction?

Hayato Matsuoka is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1604 vs 1390) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1608 vs 1566).

Player Comparison

1389.6 Elo 1604.2

1566.4 Elo (surface) 1608.2

79 Wins (Challenger) 41

78 Wins (surface) 40

6 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.324 Dominance ratio 0.975

326 Rank 309

29.9 Age 21.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Fajing Sun

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Hayato Matsuoka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Fajing Sun Hayato Matsuoka

1st Serve In %

56.1%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

60.4%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.4%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.8%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.2%

58.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.5%

69.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.3%

43.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.9%

23.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.3%

49.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Fajing Sun Hayato Matsuoka

Break Points Saved %

53.6%

64.3%

Break Points Converted %

32.3%

66.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.5%

56.9%

Break Points Converted %

42.0%

45.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Fajing Sun 1 – 0 Hayato Matsuoka

Hard Astana 4 challenger · 2026-08-14

QF

Hayato Matsuoka #309

Fajing Sun #326

7-5 7-5

4 Aces 10

1 Double Faults 4

82 Service Points 65

48 First Serve In 40

33 First Serve Won 33

17 Second Serve Won 13

5 Break Points Saved 0

8 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.2

Hard Nonthaburi 1 CH · 2026-01-05

R32

Fajing Sun #274

Hayato Matsuoka #393

6-2 2-6 6-2

2 Aces 4

2 Double Faults 2

82 Service Points 89

58 First Serve In 50

34 First Serve Won 30

12 Second Serve Won 17

8 Break Points Saved 11

12 Break Points Faced 17

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Fajing Sun vs Hayato Matsuoka — Prediction