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Fajing Sun vs Hanyi Liu — Prediction

Challenger Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · R16 07:15

Predicted probability

Fajing Sun

China

75.04%

Hanyi Liu

China

24.96%

Average Odds

1.12  /  5.72

Market probability

83.63%  /  16.37%

Why This Prediction?

Fajing Sun is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1567 vs 1325), a higher Elo rating (1404 vs 1310) and a stronger serve (66.7% vs 60.4% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1404.1 Elo 1310.0
1567.4 Elo (surface) 1325.1
80 Wins (Challenger) 7
79 Wins (surface) 7
6 Last 15 form 5
1 Head-to-head wins 0
1.244 Dominance ratio 0.832
323 Rank 912
29.9 Age 25.3
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Fajing Sun

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–5L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Hanyi Liu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-08-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Fajing Sun Hanyi Liu

1st Serve In %

56.1%
70.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.4%
65.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.3%
35.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.4%
20.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.8%
52.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.39
0.10

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31
0.10

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.2%
68.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.5%
66.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.3%
44.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.9%
21.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.3%
46.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.43
0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14
0.10

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Fajing Sun Hanyi Liu

Break Points Saved %

53.6%
33.3%

Break Points Converted %

32.3%
66.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.5%
55.1%

Break Points Converted %

42.0%
39.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Fajing Sun 1 – 0 Hanyi Liu

Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · 2026-09-03

R16

Fajing Sun #323

Hanyi Liu #912

6-0 7-5
3 Aces 0
0 Double Faults 0
40 Service Points 51
26 First Serve In 36
25 First Serve Won 20
11 Second Serve Won 8
0 Break Points Saved 4
0 Break Points Faced 8
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
1.1 Average Odds 5.7
Clay Baotou CH · 2019-08-26

R64

Fajing Sun #395

Hanyi Liu #1225

6-4 6-1
3 Aces 2
4 Double Faults 1
48 Service Points 57
25 First Serve In 38
21 First Serve Won 22
14 Second Serve Won 6
1 Break Points Saved 6
2 Break Points Faced 10
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Fajing Sun — Last 10

W W L W L L W W L W

Hanyi Liu — Last 10

L W L W L W L W L L