ATP tennis predict — Fajing Sun vs Alibek Kachmazov

Challenger Hard Wuning 3 challenger · QF 06:40

Predicted probability

Fajing Sun

China

54.49%

Alibek Kachmazov

Russia

45.51%

Average Odds

2.21 / 1.62

Market probability

42.30% / 57.70%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1633.7 Elo 1626.4

1635.8 Elo (surface) 1630.6

84 Wins (Challenger) 99

83 Wins (surface) 87

8 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 2

1.079 Dominance ratio 0.852

303 Rank 525

30.0 Age 24.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Fajing Sun

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–6L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Alibek Kachmazov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-08-09.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Fajing Sun Alibek Kachmazov

1st Serve In %

56.1%

58.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.4%

65.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.3%

54.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.4%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.8%

48.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.7%

60.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.2%

68.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.6%

47.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.5%

27.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.3%

43.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.11

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Fajing Sun Alibek Kachmazov

Break Points Saved %

54.4%

65.3%

Break Points Converted %

39.5%

41.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.3%

60.6%

Break Points Converted %

40.7%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Fajing Sun 0 – 2 Alibek Kachmazov

Hard Guangzhou CH · 2025-04-28

R32

Alibek Kachmazov #185

Fajing Sun #289

6-4 7-6(5)

9 Aces 0

6 Double Faults 1

80 Service Points 83

39 First Serve In 43

34 First Serve Won 29

20 Second Serve Won 21

2 Break Points Saved 6

3 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Shenzhen CH · 2023-10-16

R32

Alibek Kachmazov #275

Fajing Sun #402

6-3 7-6(7)

5 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 0

72 Service Points 69

36 First Serve In 40

32 First Serve Won 26

20 Second Serve Won 19

1 Break Points Saved 4

1 Break Points Faced 5