ATP tennis predict — Fajing Sun vs Alexis Galarneau

Challenger Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · 1. round 09:30

Predicted probability

Fajing Sun

China

34.04%

Alexis Galarneau

Canada

65.96%

Average Odds

2.92 / 1.37

Market probability

31.93% / 68.07%

Why This Prediction?

Alexis Galarneau is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1755 vs 1599), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1706 vs 1612) and a stronger return game (37.7% vs 30.9% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1599.2 Elo 1754.9

1611.8 Elo (surface) 1706.4

81 Wins (Challenger) 197

80 Wins (surface) 166

5 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.079 Dominance ratio 0.884

324 Rank 176

30.0 Age 27.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Fajing Sun

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Alexis Galarneau

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Fajing Sun Alexis Galarneau

1st Serve In %

56.1%

62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.4%

68.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.3%

49.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.4%

26.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.8%

48.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.65

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.2%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.5%

72.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.3%

47.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.9%

23.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.3%

45.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.52

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Fajing Sun Alexis Galarneau

Break Points Saved %

53.6%

65.8%

Break Points Converted %

32.3%

32.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.5%

54.3%

Break Points Converted %

42.0%

43.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Fajing Sun 0 – 0 Alexis Galarneau

Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · 2026-09-15

1. round

Fajing Sun #324

Alexis Galarneau #176

7-5 3-6 7-5

6 Aces 19

2 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

55 First Serve Won 49

6 Second Serve Won 16

2 Break Points Saved 3

5 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.9 Average Odds 1.4

Fajing Sun vs Alexis Galarneau — Prediction