ATP tennis predict — Facundo Mena vs Max Alcala Gurri

Challenger Clay Porto 2 challenger · R16 11:30

Predicted probability

Facundo Mena

Argentina

32.23%

Max Alcala Gurri

Spain

67.77%

Average Odds

3.10 / 1.33

Market probability

30.02% / 69.98%

Why This Prediction?

Max Alcala Gurri is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1677 vs 1596), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1711 vs 1633) and a stronger return game (46.1% vs 36.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1595.8 Elo 1677.2

1632.5 Elo (surface) 1710.5

199 Wins (Challenger) 54

174 Wins (surface) 54

8 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.069 Dominance ratio 1.271

306 Rank 177

33.9 Age 24.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Facundo Mena

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-06-30.

Max Alcala Gurri

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–4L · 73.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Facundo Mena Max Alcala Gurri

1st Serve In %

60.1%

65.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%

52.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.2%

46.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.7%

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.8%

48.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.08

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.52

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.0%

67.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

64.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.3%

40.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.8%

35.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.0%

53.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.20

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Facundo Mena Max Alcala Gurri

Break Points Saved %

54.5%

45.0%

Break Points Converted %

25.0%

36.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.6%

58.1%

Break Points Converted %

34.9%

52.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Facundo Mena 0 – 0 Max Alcala Gurri

Clay Porto 2 challenger · 2026-09-02

R16

Facundo Mena #306

Max Alcala Gurri #177

0-6 6-0 6-2

4 Aces 0

3 Double Faults 4

68 Service Points 66

39 First Serve In 50

22 First Serve Won 28

14 Second Serve Won 3

6 Break Points Saved 10

10 Break Points Faced 16

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3.1 Average Odds 1.3

Facundo Mena vs Max Alcala Gurri — Prediction