ATP tennis predict — Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Vilius Gaubas

Challenger Clay San Marino challenger · SF

Predicted probability

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Argentina

66.90%

Vilius Gaubas

Lithuania

33.10%

Average Odds

1.43 / 2.66

Market probability

65.04% / 34.96%

Why This Prediction?

Facundo Diaz Acosta is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1801 vs 1623), a higher Elo rating (1777 vs 1663) and a stronger return game (43.0% vs 38.2% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1776.6 Elo 1663.4

1801.3 Elo (surface) 1623.2

152 Wins (Challenger) 79

143 Wins (surface) 70

13 Last 15 form 7

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.196 Dominance ratio 1.035

107 Rank 128

25.6 Age 21.6

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–2L · 84.6%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–2L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Vilius Gaubas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Facundo Diaz Acosta Vilius Gaubas

1st Serve In %

65.8%

61.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.8%

71.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%

29.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

69.2%

63.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.0%

68.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

62.4%

48.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

40.2%

33.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.6%

46.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.24

Double Faults per Service Game

0.11

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Facundo Diaz Acosta Vilius Gaubas

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

71.9%

Break Points Converted %

48.6%

34.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

76.6%

57.8%

Break Points Converted %

48.2%

45.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Facundo Diaz Acosta 1 – 0 Vilius Gaubas

Clay San Marino challenger · 2026-08-01

SF

Facundo Diaz Acosta #107

Vilius Gaubas #128

6-2 6-3

2 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 1

47 Service Points 76

33 First Serve In 47

25 First Serve Won 27

10 Second Serve Won 13

1 Break Points Saved 6

1 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.7

Clay Braunschweig challenger · 2026-07-09

R16

Facundo Diaz Acosta #120

Vilius Gaubas #129

6-4 6-2

0 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 0

58 Service Points 64

41 First Serve In 46

22 First Serve Won 31

7 Second Serve Won 10

3 Break Points Saved 2

7 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.4

Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Vilius Gaubas — Prediction