ATP tennis predict — Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Tommaso Compagnucci

Challenger Clay San Marino challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Argentina

78.70%

Tommaso Compagnucci

Italy

21.30%

Average Odds

1.14 / 5.35

Market probability

82.43% / 17.57%

Why This Prediction?

Facundo Diaz Acosta is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1780 vs 1608), a higher Elo rating (1757 vs 1582) and more wins on clay courts (140 vs 24).

Player Comparison

1756.7 Elo 1581.8

1779.6 Elo (surface) 1607.6

149 Wins (Challenger) 25

140 Wins (surface) 24

12 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.314 Dominance ratio 1.139

107 Rank 358

25.6 Age 26.7

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–2L · 84.6%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–2L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Tommaso Compagnucci

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Facundo Diaz Acosta Tommaso Compagnucci

1st Serve In %

65.8%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

69.8%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.7%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.39

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

69.2%

63.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.0%

68.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

62.4%

44.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

40.2%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.6%

39.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.11

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Facundo Diaz Acosta Tommaso Compagnucci

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

—

Break Points Converted %

48.6%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

76.6%

60.3%

Break Points Converted %

48.2%

40.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Facundo Diaz Acosta 0 – 0 Tommaso Compagnucci

Clay San Marino challenger · 2026-07-28

1. round

Facundo Diaz Acosta #107

Tommaso Compagnucci #358

6-4 6-2

0 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 3

51 Service Points 52

36 First Serve In 31

28 First Serve Won 21

7 Second Serve Won 5

1 Break Points Saved 1

2 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 5.3

Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Tommaso Compagnucci — Prediction