ATP tennis predict — Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Shintaro Mochizuki

Challenger Hard Jinan challenger · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Argentina

53.50%

Shintaro Mochizuki

Japan

46.50%

Average Odds

1.56 / 2.26

Market probability

59.16% / 40.84%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1878.8 Elo 1754.0

1569.8 Elo (surface) 1649.1

159 Wins (Challenger) 128

9 Wins (surface) 85

13 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.298 Dominance ratio 1.151

69 Rank 123

25.8 Age 23.4

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–2L · 84.6%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–2L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

31 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Shintaro Mochizuki

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

31 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Facundo Diaz Acosta Shintaro Mochizuki

1st Serve In %

65.6%

47.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.0%

72.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.8%

47.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.9%

31.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

60.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.37

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.41

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

69.2%

56.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.0%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

62.4%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

40.2%

33.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.6%

60.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.11

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Facundo Diaz Acosta Shintaro Mochizuki

Break Points Saved %

60.3%

55.6%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

47.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

76.6%

48.2%

Break Points Converted %

48.2%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Facundo Diaz Acosta and Shintaro Mochizuki have never played each other.

Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Shintaro Mochizuki — Prediction