ATP tennis predict — Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Sebastian Ofner

Challenger Clay Sevilla challenger · QF 18:00

Predicted probability

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Argentina

70.55%

Sebastian Ofner

Austria

29.45%

Average Odds

1.56 / 2.34

Market probability

60.00% / 40.00%

Why This Prediction?

Facundo Diaz Acosta is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1875 vs 1805), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1899 vs 1817) and a stronger return game (44.3% vs 36.2% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1875.1 Elo 1805.1

1898.8 Elo (surface) 1816.7

156 Wins (Challenger) 184

147 Wins (surface) 99

14 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.298 Dominance ratio 0.917

82 Rank 125

25.7 Age 30.3

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–2L · 84.6%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–2L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Sebastian Ofner

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Facundo Diaz Acosta Sebastian Ofner

1st Serve In %

65.8%

58.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.8%

72.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

45.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%

25.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.7%

50.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

69.2%

56.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.0%

69.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

62.4%

46.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

40.2%

31.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.6%

40.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.11

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Facundo Diaz Acosta Sebastian Ofner

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

62.3%

Break Points Converted %

48.6%

40.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

76.6%

55.4%

Break Points Converted %

48.2%

34.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Facundo Diaz Acosta 0 – 1 Sebastian Ofner

Clay Sevilla challenger · 2026-09-11

QF

Facundo Diaz Acosta #82

Sebastian Ofner #125

7-5 6-2

2 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 4

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

36 First Serve Won 18

11 Second Serve Won 15

6 Break Points Saved 2

8 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Clay Roland Garros · 2023-05-29

Q3

Sebastian Ofner #118

Facundo Diaz Acosta #137

7-5 6-3

0 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 2

53 Service Points 80

32 First Serve In 52

27 First Serve Won 31

12 Second Serve Won 13

0 Break Points Saved 9

1 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Sebastian Ofner — Prediction