ATP tennis predict — Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Mili Poljicak

Challenger Clay San Marino challenger · F

Predicted probability

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Argentina

59.83%

Mili Poljicak

Croatia

40.17%

Average Odds

1.26 / 3.63

Market probability

74.23% / 25.77%

Why This Prediction?

Facundo Diaz Acosta is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1808 vs 1715), a higher Elo rating (1785 vs 1696) and more wins on clay courts (24 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1785.2 Elo 1695.7

1808.3 Elo (surface) 1715.0

153 Wins (Challenger) 51

144 Wins (surface) 49

13 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.159 Dominance ratio 1.235

107 Rank 352

25.6 Age 22.0

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–2L · 84.6%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–2L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Mili Poljicak

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-23.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Facundo Diaz Acosta Mili Poljicak

1st Serve In %

65.8%

53.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.8%

74.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

45.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%

27.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.7%

42.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

69.2%

58.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.0%

74.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

62.4%

58.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

40.2%

27.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.6%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.11

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Facundo Diaz Acosta Mili Poljicak

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

65.2%

Break Points Converted %

48.6%

27.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

76.6%

57.5%

Break Points Converted %

48.2%

33.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Facundo Diaz Acosta 0 – 0 Mili Poljicak

Clay San Marino challenger · 2026-08-02

F

Facundo Diaz Acosta #107

Mili Poljicak #352

6-1 6-4

2 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 0

49 Service Points 56

35 First Serve In 27

28 First Serve Won 17

10 Second Serve Won 13

2 Break Points Saved 5

2 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.6

Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Mili Poljicak — Prediction