ATP tennis predict — Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Francesco Forti

Challenger Clay San Marino challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Argentina

80.52%

Francesco Forti

Italy

19.48%

Average Odds

1.13 / 5.30

Market probability

82.43% / 17.57%

Why This Prediction?

Facundo Diaz Acosta is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1787 vs 1591), a higher Elo rating (1763 vs 1569) and a stronger serve (63.6% vs 52.8% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1763.3 Elo 1568.8

1786.8 Elo (surface) 1591.3

150 Wins (Challenger) 93

141 Wins (surface) 75

13 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.287 Dominance ratio 1.049

107 Rank 371

25.6 Age 27.0

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–2L · 84.6%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–2L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Francesco Forti

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–5L · 58.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Facundo Diaz Acosta Francesco Forti

1st Serve In %

65.8%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.8%

67.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

37.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%

21.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.7%

43.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.56

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

69.2%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.0%

73.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

62.4%

46.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

40.2%

37.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.6%

52.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.11

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Facundo Diaz Acosta Francesco Forti

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

40.0%

Break Points Converted %

48.6%

21.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

76.6%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

48.2%

45.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Facundo Diaz Acosta 0 – 0 Francesco Forti

Clay San Marino challenger · 2026-07-29

R16

Facundo Diaz Acosta #107

Francesco Forti #371

6-2 7-6

3 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 1

81 Service Points 81

59 First Serve In 46

40 First Serve Won 27

13 Second Serve Won 17

10 Break Points Saved 8

11 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 5.3

Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Francesco Forti — Prediction