ATP tennis predict — Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Alejandro Moro Canas

Challenger Clay Sevilla challenger · R16 18:00

Predicted probability

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Argentina

79.31%

Alejandro Moro Canas

Spain

20.69%

Average Odds

1.32 / 3.20

Market probability

70.80% / 29.20%

Why This Prediction?

Facundo Diaz Acosta is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1893 vs 1657), a higher Elo rating (1868 vs 1700) and more wins on clay courts (146 vs 61).

Player Comparison

1868.3 Elo 1700.1

1893.4 Elo (surface) 1656.6

155 Wins (Challenger) 120

146 Wins (surface) 61

14 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.298 Dominance ratio 1.129

82 Rank 238

25.7 Age 25.8

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–2L · 84.6%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–2L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Alejandro Moro Canas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–5L · 64.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Facundo Diaz Acosta Alejandro Moro Canas

1st Serve In %

65.8%

66.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.8%

65.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

53.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%

28.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.7%

44.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

69.2%

64.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.0%

64.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

62.4%

40.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

40.2%

37.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.6%

55.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.11

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Facundo Diaz Acosta Alejandro Moro Canas

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

59.7%

Break Points Converted %

48.6%

34.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

76.6%

59.3%

Break Points Converted %

48.2%

43.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Facundo Diaz Acosta 0 – 0 Alejandro Moro Canas

Clay Sevilla challenger · 2026-09-09

R16

Facundo Diaz Acosta #82

Alejandro Moro Canas #238

6-1 7-5

1 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 0

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

33 First Serve Won 22

8 Second Serve Won 6

1 Break Points Saved 2

2 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.2

Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Alejandro Moro Canas — Prediction