ATP tennis predict — Fabian Marozsan vs Matteo Arnaldi

ATP Hard Montreal · 2. round 21:30

Predicted probability

Fabian Marozsan

Hungary

48.49%

Matteo Arnaldi

Italy

51.51%

Average Odds

1.71 / 2.13

Market probability

55.47% / 44.53%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1742.4 Elo 1749.7

1659.3 Elo (surface) 1608.7

86 Wins 100

49 Wins (surface) 56

8 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 2

0.912 Dominance ratio 1.146

61 Rank 35

26.8 Age 25.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Fabian Marozsan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Matteo Arnaldi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Fabian Marozsan Matteo Arnaldi

1st Serve In %

55.3%

58.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

75.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.3%

48.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.4%

25.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.7%

57.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.52

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.9%

55.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.3%

67.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.6%

54.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.6%

37.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.8%

52.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.11

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Fabian Marozsan Matteo Arnaldi

Break Points Saved %

58.6%

62.2%

Break Points Converted %

41.7%

41.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.8%

60.6%

Break Points Converted %

36.4%

41.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Fabian Marozsan 0 – 2 Matteo Arnaldi

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-05

2. round

Matteo Arnaldi #35

Fabian Marozsan #61

7-5 2-6 6-4

4 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 7

85 Service Points 83

54 First Serve In 41

38 First Serve Won 32

20 Second Serve Won 20

5 Break Points Saved 2

8 Break Points Faced 5

0 Winners 0

0 Unforced Errors 0

2.1 Average Odds 1.7

Clay Geneva · 2025-05-18

R16

Matteo Arnaldi #39

Fabian Marozsan #56

6-3 7-6(3)

5 Aces 2

0 Double Faults 2

75 Service Points 76

47 First Serve In 43

33 First Serve Won 31

20 Second Serve Won 16

2 Break Points Saved 5

2 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay San Marino CH · 2022-08-08

QF

Matteo Arnaldi #204

Fabian Marozsan #248

6-4 6-2

1 Aces 0

0 Double Faults 3

57 Service Points 50

38 First Serve In 31

27 First Serve Won 24

12 Second Serve Won 4

1 Break Points Saved 2

1 Break Points Faced 5