ATP tennis predict — Evan Zhu vs Koki Matsuda

Challenger Hard Wuning 3 challenger · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Evan Zhu

USA

63.35%

Koki Matsuda

Japan

36.65%

Average Odds

1.39 / 2.74

Market probability

66.34% / 33.66%

Why This Prediction?

Evan Zhu is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1603 vs 1499), a higher Elo rating (1601 vs 1502) and a stronger return game (39.7% vs 37.0% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1601.0 Elo 1502.0

1602.7 Elo (surface) 1498.8

79 Wins (Challenger) 24

66 Wins (surface) 24

10 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.041 Dominance ratio 1.056

502 Rank 475

28.1 Age 25.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Evan Zhu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-07-13.

Koki Matsuda

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-07-19.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Evan Zhu Koki Matsuda

1st Serve In %

58.5%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

60.6%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.5%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.4%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.34

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

54.4%

66.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.9%

74.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.1%

43.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.0%

27.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.3%

52.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.22

0.61

Double Faults per Service Game

0.40

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Evan Zhu Koki Matsuda

Break Points Saved %

48.3%

—

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.4%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

34.6%

30.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Evan Zhu and Koki Matsuda have never played each other.

Evan Zhu vs Koki Matsuda — Prediction