ATP tennis predict — Evan Zhu vs Joshua Sheehy

Challenger Hard Kingston 2 challenger · qualification - round of 16 17:00

Predicted probability

Evan Zhu

USA

78.80%

Joshua Sheehy

USA

21.20%

Average Odds

1.36 / 2.76

Market probability

66.99% / 33.01%

Why This Prediction?

Evan Zhu is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1515 vs 1382), a higher Elo rating (1508 vs 1406) and more wins on hard courts (1 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1507.7 Elo 1406.4

1514.9 Elo (surface) 1382.4

71 Wins (Challenger) 29

58 Wins (surface) 22

10 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.975 Dominance ratio 0.768

600 Rank 661

28.0 Age 29.6

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Evan Zhu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-07-13.

Joshua Sheehy

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Evan Zhu Joshua Sheehy

1st Serve In %

58.5%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

60.6%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.5%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.4%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.34

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.6%

60.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

67.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%

46.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.2%

24.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.9%

45.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.17

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.41

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Evan Zhu Joshua Sheehy

Break Points Saved %

48.3%

—

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.8%

57.5%

Break Points Converted %

39.2%

24.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Evan Zhu 0 – 1 Joshua Sheehy

Hard Kingston 2 challenger · 2026-08-24

qualification - round of 16

Evan Zhu #526

Joshua Sheehy #750

7-5 6-0

3 Aces 4

3 Double Faults 7

49 Service Points 60

36 First Serve In 34

26 First Serve Won 20

8 Second Serve Won 7

1 Break Points Saved 5

2 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.8

Clay Merida CH · 2025-03-17

Q2

Joshua Sheehy #752

Evan Zhu #630

6-4 6-4

3 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 0

67 Service Points 66

32 First Serve In 51

23 First Serve Won 30

21 Second Serve Won 10

6 Break Points Saved 2

7 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Evan Zhu vs Joshua Sheehy — Prediction