ATP tennis predict — Evan Zhu vs Alibek Kachmazov

Challenger Hard Wuning 3 challenger · R16 04:00

Predicted probability

Evan Zhu

USA

46.83%

Alibek Kachmazov

Russia

53.17%

Average Odds

2.46 / 1.50

Market probability

37.88% / 62.12%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1611.9 Elo 1611.8

1614.2 Elo (surface) 1615.2

80 Wins (Challenger) 98

67 Wins (surface) 86

10 Last 15 form 6

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.041 Dominance ratio 0.852

479 Rank 525

28.2 Age 24.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Evan Zhu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-07-13.

Alibek Kachmazov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-08-09.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Evan Zhu Alibek Kachmazov

1st Serve In %

58.5%

58.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.6%

65.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.5%

54.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.3%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.4%

48.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

—

60.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

47.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

26.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

45.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.27

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Evan Zhu Alibek Kachmazov

Break Points Saved %

48.3%

65.3%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

41.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

50.8%

59.4%

Break Points Converted %

34.6%

44.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Evan Zhu 1 – 0 Alibek Kachmazov

Clay Shymkent 1 CH · 2022-05-09

Q2

Evan Zhu #495

Alibek Kachmazov #374

7-6(5) 6-1

5 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 3

61 Service Points 68

31 First Serve In 42

28 First Serve Won 28

17 Second Serve Won 14

0 Break Points Saved 7

0 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Evan Zhu vs Alibek Kachmazov — Prediction