ATP tennis predict — Etienne Donnet vs Matteo Martineau

Challenger Hard Roanne challenger · R16 10:00

Predicted probability

Etienne Donnet

France

47.42%

Matteo Martineau

France

52.58%

Average Odds

2.61 / 1.43

Market probability

35.40% / 64.60%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1603.1 Elo 1599.8

1621.7 Elo (surface) 1625.4

9 Wins (Challenger) 155

9 Wins (surface) 89

8 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.947 Dominance ratio 1.047

817 Rank 272

25.7 Age 27.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Etienne Donnet

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

3 matches with market odds since 2026-10-11.

Matteo Martineau

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Etienne Donnet Matteo Martineau

1st Serve In %

—

66.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

71.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

42.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

24.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

44.7%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.67

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.43

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.7%

63.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

71.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%

43.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.9%

32.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.6%

41.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.60

0.64

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Etienne Donnet Matteo Martineau

Break Points Saved %

—

60.3%

Break Points Converted %

—

27.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.6%

68.3%

Break Points Converted %

38.3%

38.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Etienne Donnet 0 – 1 Matteo Martineau

Hard Roanne CH · 2025-10-06

Q1

Matteo Martineau #297

Etienne Donnet #449

7-6(4) 6-4

10 Aces 6

4 Double Faults 0

70 Service Points 84

46 First Serve In 54

36 First Serve Won 38

15 Second Serve Won 14

2 Break Points Saved 4

3 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Etienne Donnet vs Matteo Martineau — Prediction