ATP tennis predict — Erik Arutiunian vs Kenta Miyoshi

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Erik Arutiunian

Belarus

30.29%

Kenta Miyoshi

Japan

69.71%

Average Odds

3.51 / 1.27

Market probability

26.57% / 73.43%

Why This Prediction?

Kenta Miyoshi is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1647 vs 1494), a higher Elo rating (1637 vs 1481) and a stronger return game (43.9% vs 38.0% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1481.1 Elo 1636.6

1494.2 Elo (surface) 1647.3

13 Wins (Challenger) 24

13 Wins (surface) 24

8 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.080 Dominance ratio 1.262

619 Rank -

21.8 Age 22.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Erik Arutiunian

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Kenta Miyoshi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Erik Arutiunian Kenta Miyoshi

1st Serve In %

53.6%

45.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

50.0%

66.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

26.9%

44.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.5%

27.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.3%

51.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.29

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.9%

55.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.1%

73.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.8%

53.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.3%

36.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.0%

48.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.37

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Erik Arutiunian Kenta Miyoshi

Break Points Saved %

40.0%

42.9%

Break Points Converted %

25.0%

23.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

52.5%

56.7%

Break Points Converted %

34.9%

46.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Erik Arutiunian 0 – 0 Kenta Miyoshi

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-08-02

qualification - 1. round

Kenta Miyoshi #-

Erik Arutiunian #619

7-6 6-2

5 Aces 7

3 Double Faults 1

70 Service Points 53

45 First Serve In 34

30 First Serve Won 33

11 Second Serve Won 11

2 Break Points Saved 0

4 Break Points Faced 0

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.5

Erik Arutiunian vs Kenta Miyoshi — Prediction