ATP tennis predict — Eric Vanshelboim vs Michele Mecarelli

Challenger Clay Todi challenger · qualification - round of 16 10:05

Predicted probability

Eric Vanshelboim

Ukraine

53.33%

Michele Mecarelli

Italy

46.67%

Average Odds

1.72 / 2.02

Market probability

54.01% / 45.99%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1475.0 Elo 1494.3

1451.7 Elo (surface) 1468.3

31 Wins (Challenger) 3

19 Wins (surface) 1

5 Last 15 form 3

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.982 Dominance ratio 1.107

420 Rank 950

25.1 Age 19.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Eric Vanshelboim

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

2 matches with market odds since 2026-08-10.

Michele Mecarelli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Eric Vanshelboim Michele Mecarelli

1st Serve In %

70.6%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

37.5%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

30.0%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.0%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

10.0%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.17

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

69.4%

55.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.4%

65.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.7%

51.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

40.6%

36.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.1%

49.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.16

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Eric Vanshelboim Michele Mecarelli

Break Points Saved %

0.0%

—

Break Points Converted %

0.0%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

46.6%

52.4%

Break Points Converted %

44.0%

51.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Eric Vanshelboim 0 – 0 Michele Mecarelli

Clay Todi challenger · 2026-08-10

qualification - round of 16

Michele Mecarelli #950

Eric Vanshelboim #420

6-3 3-0

0 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 1

43 Service Points 35

31 First Serve In 23

15 First Serve Won 17

3 Second Serve Won 5

3 Break Points Saved 1

7 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.0 Average Odds 1.7

Eric Vanshelboim vs Michele Mecarelli — Prediction