ATP tennis predict — Ergi Kirkin vs Oskari Paldanius

Challenger Hard Grodzisk Mazowiecki challenger · qualification - round of 16

Predicted probability

Ergi Kirkin

Turkey

73.35%

Oskari Paldanius

Finland

26.65%

Average Odds

2.04 / 1.70

Market probability

45.45% / 54.55%

Why This Prediction?

Ergi Kirkin is the favorite because he has more career match wins (92 vs 1), a higher Elo rating (1501 vs 1453) and a stronger return game (41.4% vs 37.7% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1501.3 Elo 1453.0

1507.4 Elo (surface) 1497.6

92 Wins (Challenger) 1

32 Wins (surface) 1

9 Last 15 form 1

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.076 Dominance ratio 0.935

595 Rank 1083

27.5 Age None

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ergi Kirkin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-07-28.

Oskari Paldanius

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-06-28.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ergi Kirkin Oskari Paldanius

1st Serve In %

58.4%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

65.9%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.9%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.1%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.5%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.25

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

53.3%

67.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.7%

62.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%

54.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.4%

35.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.1%

56.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.24

0.21

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ergi Kirkin Oskari Paldanius

Break Points Saved %

60.4%

—

Break Points Converted %

42.1%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

46.0%

55.7%

Break Points Converted %

44.2%

54.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ergi Kirkin 0 – 0 Oskari Paldanius

Hard Grodzisk Mazowiecki challenger · 2026-08-03

qualification - round of 16

Ergi Kirkin #608

Oskari Paldanius #1088

6-7 6-4 6-2

2 Aces 0

2 Double Faults 3

94 Service Points 88

40 First Serve In 55

25 First Serve Won 33

30 Second Serve Won 15

3 Break Points Saved 4

7 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.0 Average Odds 1.7

Ergi Kirkin vs Oskari Paldanius — Prediction