ATP tennis predict — Ergi Kirkin vs Ilya Ivashka

Challenger Hard Grodzisk Mazowiecki challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Ergi Kirkin

Turkey

39.16%

Ilya Ivashka

Belarus

60.84%

Average Odds

4.78 / 1.16

Market probability

19.53% / 80.47%

Why This Prediction?

Ilya Ivashka is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1657 vs 1527), a higher Elo rating (1643 vs 1514) and more wins on hard courts (91 vs 2).

Player Comparison

1513.9 Elo 1642.7

1527.4 Elo (surface) 1657.0

93 Wins (Challenger) 129

33 Wins (surface) 113

9 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.049 Dominance ratio 0.978

608 Rank 402

27.5 Age 32.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ergi Kirkin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-07-28.

Ilya Ivashka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ergi Kirkin Ilya Ivashka

1st Serve In %

58.4%

60.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.9%

68.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.9%

46.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.1%

26.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.5%

52.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.45

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

53.3%

60.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.7%

72.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%

55.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.4%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.1%

44.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.24

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ergi Kirkin Ilya Ivashka

Break Points Saved %

60.4%

62.6%

Break Points Converted %

42.1%

45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

46.0%

51.1%

Break Points Converted %

44.2%

34.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ergi Kirkin 0 – 1 Ilya Ivashka

Hard Grodzisk Mazowiecki challenger · 2026-08-04

1. round

Ilya Ivashka #402

Ergi Kirkin #608

6-1 5-7 6-3

4 Aces 9

4 Double Faults 1

90 Service Points 80

42 First Serve In 45

26 First Serve Won 33

23 Second Serve Won 20

4 Break Points Saved 1

9 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.8

Hard Istanbul CH · 2020-10-19

R32

Ilya Ivashka #129

Ergi Kirkin #503

6-2 6-4

2 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 1

50 Service Points 70

33 First Serve In 38

26 First Serve Won 24

9 Second Serve Won 11

2 Break Points Saved 12

3 Break Points Faced 16

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Ergi Kirkin vs Ilya Ivashka — Prediction