ATP tennis predict — Elmer Moller vs Vilius Gaubas

Challenger Clay Braga challenger · SF 13:30

Predicted probability

Elmer Moller

Denmark

49.36%

Vilius Gaubas

Lithuania

50.64%

Average Odds

2.04 / 1.70

Market probability

45.45% / 54.55%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1713.5 Elo 1767.6

1749.8 Elo (surface) 1689.9

92 Wins (Challenger) 81

77 Wins (surface) 72

8 Last 15 form 7

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.124 Dominance ratio 1.008

181 Rank 141

23.2 Age 21.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Elmer Moller

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–5L · 54.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-23.

Vilius Gaubas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Elmer Moller Vilius Gaubas

1st Serve In %

59.3%

61.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.3%

71.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.7%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.4%

29.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.0%

49.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.21

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.9%

63.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.1%

69.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.6%

51.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.2%

34.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.7%

47.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Elmer Moller Vilius Gaubas

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

71.9%

Break Points Converted %

29.5%

34.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.2%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

49.4%

51.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Elmer Moller 1 – 0 Vilius Gaubas

Clay Lima 2 CH · 2024-11-04

QF

Elmer Moller #172

Vilius Gaubas #193

6-4 3-6 6-0

0 Aces 1

5 Double Faults 2

79 Service Points 78

41 First Serve In 49

28 First Serve Won 25

18 Second Serve Won 10

8 Break Points Saved 3

13 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Elmer Moller vs Vilius Gaubas — Prediction