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Elmer Moller vs Tiago Pereira — Prediction

Challenger Clay Braga challenger · QF 15:30

Predicted probability

Elmer Moller

Denmark

72.84%

Tiago Pereira

Portugal

27.16%

Average Odds

1.40  /  2.79

Market probability

66.59%  /  33.41%

Why This Prediction?

Elmer Moller is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1750 vs 1569), a higher Elo rating (1713 vs 1586) and a stronger return game (43.1% vs 38.0% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1713.5 Elo 1586.1
1749.8 Elo (surface) 1568.8
92 Wins (Challenger) 39
77 Wins (surface) 25
8 Last 15 form 8
2 Head-to-head wins 1
1.124 Dominance ratio 1.049
181 Rank 339
23.2 Age 22.3
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Elmer Moller

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–5L · 54.5%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-23.

Tiago Pereira

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–4L · 33.3%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-06-09.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Elmer Moller Tiago Pereira

1st Serve In %

59.3%
56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.3%
74.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.7%
50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.4%
39.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.0%
51.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.21
0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36
0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.9%
62.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.1%
68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.6%
52.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.2%
30.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.7%
38.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.28
0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32
0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Elmer Moller Tiago Pereira

Break Points Saved %

63.2%
56.2%

Break Points Converted %

29.5%
39.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.2%
67.9%

Break Points Converted %

49.4%
39.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Elmer Moller 2 – 1 Tiago Pereira

Clay Montemar CH · 2025-11-17

R32

Elmer Moller #152

Tiago Pereira #260

5-7 6-3 6-2
2 Aces 4
8 Double Faults 0
100 Service Points 96
72 First Serve In 61
44 First Serve Won 42
15 Second Serve Won 13
10 Break Points Saved 8
13 Break Points Faced 13
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Lisbon CH · 2025-09-22

R32

Tiago Pereira #282

Elmer Moller #117

7-5 7-5
2 Aces 4
3 Double Faults 3
89 Service Points 72
41 First Serve In 45
28 First Serve Won 24
20 Second Serve Won 10
6 Break Points Saved 2
11 Break Points Faced 9
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Lisbon CH · 2024-09-23

Q1

Elmer Moller #250

Tiago Pereira #528

6-2 6-1
3 Aces 2
1 Double Faults 0
42 Service Points 45
32 First Serve In 30
28 First Serve Won 17
5 Second Serve Won 4
2 Break Points Saved 4
2 Break Points Faced 8
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Elmer Moller — Last 10

W W L L L L W L L W

Tiago Pereira — Last 10

W W L W L L W W L W