ATP tennis predict — Elmer Moller vs Matej Dodig

Challenger Clay Braga challenger · F 12:00

Predicted probability

Elmer Moller

Denmark

38.79%

Matej Dodig

Croatia

61.21%

Average Odds

2.85 / 1.39

Market probability

32.78% / 67.22%

Why This Prediction?

Matej Dodig is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1856 vs 1741), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1858 vs 1774) and a stronger serve (62.5% vs 58.8% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1741.4 Elo 1856.4

1773.7 Elo (surface) 1858.4

94 Wins (Challenger) 89

79 Wins (surface) 69

9 Last 15 form 13

1 Head-to-head wins 1

1.124 Dominance ratio 0.845

181 Rank 174

23.3 Age 21.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Elmer Moller

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–5L · 58.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-23.

Matej Dodig

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 13W–3L · 81.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

32 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Elmer Moller Matej Dodig

1st Serve In %

59.3%

65.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.3%

70.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.7%

45.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.4%

27.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.0%

43.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.21

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.0%

66.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.4%

64.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.1%

45.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.6%

16.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.4%

37.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Elmer Moller Matej Dodig

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

61.7%

Break Points Converted %

29.5%

31.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.6%

56.5%

Break Points Converted %

51.2%

37.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Elmer Moller 1 – 1 Matej Dodig

Hard Davis Cup QLS R1: DEN vs CRO · 2026-02-06

RR

Elmer Moller #120

Matej Dodig #235

6-4 7-6(3)

- Aces -

- Double Faults -

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

- First Serve Won -

- Second Serve Won -

- Break Points Saved -

- Break Points Faced -

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Split CH · 2024-04-08

QF

Matej Dodig #420

Elmer Moller #368

6-2 6-0

3 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 3

46 Service Points 45

27 First Serve In 29

22 First Serve Won 12

9 Second Serve Won 5

4 Break Points Saved 3

5 Break Points Faced 9