ATP tennis predict — Elmer Moller vs Marko Topo

Challenger Clay Bonn challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Elmer Moller

Denmark

64.23%

Marko Topo

Germany

35.77%

Average Odds

1.66 / 2.12

Market probability

56.08% / 43.92%

Why This Prediction?

Elmer Moller is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1707 vs 1576), a higher Elo rating (1698 vs 1571) and a stronger return game (49.3% vs 35.2% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1697.9 Elo 1571.1

1707.1 Elo (surface) 1575.5

85 Wins (Challenger) 71

71 Wins (surface) 55

7 Last 15 form 5

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.128 Dominance ratio 0.997

190 Rank 348

23.0 Age 22.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Elmer Moller

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–5L · 54.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-23.

Marko Topo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Elmer Moller Marko Topo

1st Serve In %

59.3%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.3%

66.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.7%

45.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.4%

29.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.0%

46.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.21

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.9%

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%

68.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.4%

51.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.1%

32.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.3%

48.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Elmer Moller Marko Topo

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

59.0%

Break Points Converted %

29.5%

42.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.8%

55.7%

Break Points Converted %

52.9%

46.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Elmer Moller 1 – 0 Marko Topo

Clay Bonn challenger · 2026-07-28

1. round

Elmer Moller #190

Marko Topo #348

6-4 7-5

0 Aces 3

8 Double Faults 2

64 Service Points 67

39 First Serve In 38

26 First Serve Won 20

12 Second Serve Won 14

3 Break Points Saved 1

6 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Clay Augsburg CH · 2024-05-20

R32

Elmer Moller #293

Marko Topo #361

6-4 7-5

3 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 8

69 Service Points 90

50 First Serve In 51

37 First Serve Won 36

9 Second Serve Won 15

6 Break Points Saved 10

8 Break Points Faced 14

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Elmer Moller vs Marko Topo — Prediction