ATP tennis predict — Elmer Moller vs Maks Kasnikowski

Challenger Hard Mallorca challenger · 1. round 15:00

Predicted probability

Elmer Moller

Denmark

39.58%

Maks Kasnikowski

Poland

60.42%

Average Odds

2.27 / 1.58

Market probability

41.04% / 58.96%

Why This Prediction?

Maks Kasnikowski is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1633 vs 1484), a stronger serve (66.2% vs 58.8% of service points won) and more wins on hard courts (63 vs 15).

Player Comparison

1648.6 Elo 1628.9

1483.5 Elo (surface) 1632.9

90 Wins (Challenger) 106

15 Wins (surface) 63

9 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.133 Dominance ratio 1.154

170 Rank 258

23.2 Age 23.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Elmer Moller

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–5L · 54.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-23.

Maks Kasnikowski

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Elmer Moller Maks Kasnikowski

1st Serve In %

59.3%

59.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.3%

72.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.7%

56.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.4%

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.0%

46.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.21

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.9%

60.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%

66.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.4%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.1%

33.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.3%

48.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Elmer Moller Maks Kasnikowski

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

55.9%

Break Points Converted %

29.5%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.8%

59.0%

Break Points Converted %

52.9%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Elmer Moller 0 – 0 Maks Kasnikowski

Hard Mallorca challenger · 2026-09-02

1. round

Maks Kasnikowski #258

Elmer Moller #170

6-2 4-6 6-4

2 Aces 4

6 Double Faults 3

88 Service Points 97

52 First Serve In 51

27 First Serve Won 37

21 Second Serve Won 18

5 Break Points Saved 7

11 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Elmer Moller vs Maks Kasnikowski — Prediction