ATP tennis predict — Elmer Moller vs Lukas Neumayer

Challenger Clay Maia challenger · 1. round 12:00

Predicted probability

Elmer Moller

Denmark

54.82%

Lukas Neumayer

Austria

45.18%

Average Odds

2.09 / 1.55

Market probability

42.58% / 57.42%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1741.4 Elo 1751.0

1773.7 Elo (surface) 1753.8

94 Wins (Challenger) 122

79 Wins (surface) 112

9 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 2

1.124 Dominance ratio 0.846

181 Rank 180

23.3 Age 24.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Elmer Moller

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–5L · 58.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-23.

Lukas Neumayer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–5L · 68.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Elmer Moller Lukas Neumayer

1st Serve In %

59.3%

62.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.3%

72.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.7%

55.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.4%

29.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.0%

53.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.21

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.0%

58.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.4%

58.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.1%

38.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.6%

31.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.4%

37.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Elmer Moller Lukas Neumayer

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

63.0%

Break Points Converted %

29.5%

43.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.6%

56.3%

Break Points Converted %

51.2%

49.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Elmer Moller 0 – 2 Lukas Neumayer

Clay Menorca CH · 2025-03-31

QF

Lukas Neumayer #208

Elmer Moller #139

6-3 6-4

0 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 1

63 Service Points 63

41 First Serve In 39

23 First Serve Won 21

12 Second Serve Won 11

3 Break Points Saved 7

6 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Australian Open · 2025-01-13

Q1

Lukas Neumayer #221

Elmer Moller #160

6-7(5) 6-3 6-4

4 Aces 11

5 Double Faults 7

120 Service Points 108

72 First Serve In 65

53 First Serve Won 46

20 Second Serve Won 17

5 Break Points Saved 5

7 Break Points Faced 9