ATP tennis predict — Elias Ymer vs Semen Pankin

Challenger Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · 1. round 11:30

Predicted probability

Elias Ymer

Sweden

73.36%

Semen Pankin

Russia

26.64%

Average Odds

1.37 / 2.90

Market probability

67.92% / 32.08%

Why This Prediction?

Elias Ymer is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1675 vs 1510), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1632 vs 1511) and more wins on hard courts (78 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1675.2 Elo 1510.2

1632.0 Elo (surface) 1510.7

232 Wins (Challenger) 9

89 Wins (surface) 9

6 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.956 Dominance ratio 0.904

204 Rank 421

30.4 Age 27.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Elias Ymer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Semen Pankin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Elias Ymer Semen Pankin

1st Serve In %

60.0%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.0%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.5%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.2%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.39

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.5%

52.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.8%

69.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

47.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.6%

27.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.1%

46.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Elias Ymer Semen Pankin

Break Points Saved %

62.7%

—

Break Points Converted %

39.6%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.1%

51.4%

Break Points Converted %

33.9%

33.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Elias Ymer 0 – 0 Semen Pankin

Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · 2026-09-14

1. round

Elias Ymer #197

Semen Pankin #416

5-7 7-5 6-3

12 Aces 9

5 Double Faults 5

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

44 First Serve Won 47

27 Second Serve Won 21

6 Break Points Saved 2

8 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.9

Elias Ymer vs Semen Pankin — Prediction