ATP tennis predict — Elias Ymer vs Pavel Kotov

Challenger Hard Shanghai challenger · 1. round 09:00

Predicted probability

Elias Ymer

Sweden

48.71%

Pavel Kotov

Russia

51.29%

Average Odds

1.86 / 1.86

Market probability

50.00% / 50.00%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1614.7 Elo 1602.3

1566.2 Elo (surface) 1619.9

232 Wins (Challenger) 134

89 Wins (surface) 83

7 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 1

0.956 Dominance ratio 1.107

204 Rank 250

30.4 Age 27.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Elias Ymer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Pavel Kotov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Elias Ymer Pavel Kotov

1st Serve In %

60.0%

65.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

65.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.0%

50.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.5%

29.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.2%

44.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.5%

71.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.8%

83.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

66.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.6%

20.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.1%

51.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.67

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Elias Ymer Pavel Kotov

Break Points Saved %

62.7%

48.6%

Break Points Converted %

39.6%

36.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.1%

74.0%

Break Points Converted %

33.9%

41.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Elias Ymer 1 – 1 Pavel Kotov

Hard Shanghai challenger · 2026-09-08

1. round

Pavel Kotov #250

Elias Ymer #204

3-6 6-3 7-6

7 Aces 3

- Double Faults -

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

- First Serve Won -

- Second Serve Won -

10 Break Points Saved 8

13 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.9 Average Odds 1.9

Clay Bordeaux CH · 2022-05-09

QF

Pavel Kotov #156

Elias Ymer #139

7-6(2) 6-3

1 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 2

68 Service Points 65

38 First Serve In 31

27 First Serve Won 20

16 Second Serve Won 15

3 Break Points Saved 3

6 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Moscow · 2021-10-18

Q1

Elias Ymer #162

Pavel Kotov #274

6-2 6-3

1 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 3

59 Service Points 43

39 First Serve In 22

30 First Serve Won 17

12 Second Serve Won 8

4 Break Points Saved 2

4 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Elias Ymer vs Pavel Kotov — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Elias Ymer — Last 10

Pavel Kotov — Last 10