ATP tennis predict — Elias Ymer vs Paul Jubb

Challenger Hard Kingston challenger · 1. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Elias Ymer

Sweden

60.18%

Paul Jubb

Great Britain

39.82%

Average Odds

1.88 / 1.83

Market probability

49.33% / 50.67%

Why This Prediction?

Elias Ymer is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1624 vs 1533), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1575 vs 1505) and a stronger serve (62.8% vs 60.4% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1623.7 Elo 1533.4

1574.8 Elo (surface) 1505.2

231 Wins (Challenger) 76

88 Wins (surface) 54

7 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.037 Dominance ratio 0.979

212 Rank 384

30.4 Age 26.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Elias Ymer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Paul Jubb

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Elias Ymer Paul Jubb

1st Serve In %

60.0%

60.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

69.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.0%

47.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.5%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.2%

55.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.56

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.59

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.5%

65.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.8%

67.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

46.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.6%

28.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.1%

51.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Elias Ymer Paul Jubb

Break Points Saved %

62.7%

70.8%

Break Points Converted %

39.6%

54.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.1%

52.0%

Break Points Converted %

33.9%

35.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Elias Ymer 0 – 0 Paul Jubb

Hard Kingston challenger · 2026-08-17

1. round

Elias Ymer #212

Paul Jubb #384

6-4 6-4

5 Aces 3

0 Double Faults 1

60 Service Points 67

42 First Serve In 46

25 First Serve Won 30

12 Second Serve Won 6

2 Break Points Saved 4

4 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.9 Average Odds 1.8

Elias Ymer vs Paul Jubb — Prediction