ATP tennis predict — Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci

Challenger Hard Jinan challenger · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Elias Ymer

Sweden

21.57%

Mattia Bellucci

Italy

78.43%

Average Odds

4.76 / 1.16

Market probability

19.59% / 80.41%

Why This Prediction?

Mattia Bellucci is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1830 vs 1633), a higher Elo rating (1884 vs 1673) and a stronger return game (41.5% vs 35.7% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1672.9 Elo 1883.6

1632.8 Elo (surface) 1830.1

235 Wins (Challenger) 100

92 Wins (surface) 74

7 Last 15 form 10

1 Head-to-head wins 2

0.956 Dominance ratio 1.193

192 Rank 86

30.5 Age 25.4

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Elias Ymer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Mattia Bellucci

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Elias Ymer Mattia Bellucci

1st Serve In %

59.2%

58.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.2%

73.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.7%

44.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.1%

29.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.5%

44.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.60

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.2%

62.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.8%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%

43.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.3%

35.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.1%

48.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.58

0.56

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Elias Ymer Mattia Bellucci

Break Points Saved %

60.7%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

40.4%

29.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.1%

60.8%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

45.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Elias Ymer 1 – 2 Mattia Bellucci

Hard Shanghai · 2026-10-05

qualification - 1. round

Mattia Bellucci #86

Elias Ymer #192

4-6 7-5 7-6

8 Aces 6

2 Double Faults 4

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

43 First Serve Won 50

30 Second Serve Won 25

3 Break Points Saved 7

6 Break Points Faced 10

28 Winners 30

22 Unforced Errors 25

1.1 Average Odds 5.5

Hard Cary CH · 2024-08-12

Q1

Mattia Bellucci #113

Elias Ymer #206

7-5 7-5

6 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 3

73 Service Points 87

39 First Serve In 46

26 First Serve Won 27

17 Second Serve Won 19

4 Break Points Saved 6

7 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Alicante CH · 2023-10-02

R16

Elias Ymer #172

Mattia Bellucci #144

3-6 7-6(5) 6-3

7 Aces 12

8 Double Faults 3

99 Service Points 87

55 First Serve In 57

42 First Serve Won 46

24 Second Serve Won 16

6 Break Points Saved 4

8 Break Points Faced 5