ATP tennis predict — Elias Ymer vs Marat Sharipov

Challenger Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · QF 11:30

Predicted probability

Elias Ymer

Sweden

34.59%

Marat Sharipov

Russia

65.41%

Average Odds

2.56 / 1.47

Market probability

36.48% / 63.52%

Why This Prediction?

Marat Sharipov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1768 vs 1648), a higher Elo rating (1772 vs 1685) and more aces per game (0.21 vs 0.19).

Player Comparison

1685.2 Elo 1772.1

1648.5 Elo (surface) 1768.2

234 Wins (Challenger) 56

91 Wins (surface) 47

8 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.956 Dominance ratio 1.005

197 Rank 364

30.4 Age 23.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Elias Ymer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Marat Sharipov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-06-29.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Elias Ymer Marat Sharipov

1st Serve In %

60.0%

52.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.0%

41.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.5%

14.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.2%

42.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.50

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.5%

54.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.8%

81.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.6%

18.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.1%

40.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.67

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Elias Ymer Marat Sharipov

Break Points Saved %

62.7%

62.5%

Break Points Converted %

39.6%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.1%

56.5%

Break Points Converted %

33.9%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Elias Ymer 0 – 0 Marat Sharipov

Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · 2026-09-18

QF

Marat Sharipov #364

Elias Ymer #197

7-6 6-3

3 Aces 16

2 Double Faults 3

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

37 First Serve Won 36

10 Second Serve Won 16

5 Break Points Saved 2

7 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.6

Elias Ymer vs Marat Sharipov — Prediction