ATP tennis predict — Elias Ymer vs Luca Castelnuovo

Challenger Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · R16 09:30

Predicted probability

Elias Ymer

Sweden

67.10%

Luca Castelnuovo

Switzerland

32.90%

Average Odds

1.45 / 2.63

Market probability

64.46% / 35.54%

Why This Prediction?

Elias Ymer is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1680 vs 1521), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1640 vs 1537) and more wins on hard courts (78 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1680.2 Elo 1520.9

1640.0 Elo (surface) 1537.2

233 Wins (Challenger) 36

90 Wins (surface) 28

7 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.956 Dominance ratio 1.241

197 Rank 398

30.4 Age 29.6

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Elias Ymer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Luca Castelnuovo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–8L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Elias Ymer Luca Castelnuovo

1st Serve In %

60.0%

65.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

84.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.0%

64.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.5%

30.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.2%

61.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.67

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.5%

68.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.8%

80.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

50.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.6%

33.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.1%

46.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.60

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Elias Ymer Luca Castelnuovo

Break Points Saved %

62.7%

92.3%

Break Points Converted %

39.6%

60.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.1%

63.2%

Break Points Converted %

33.9%

47.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Elias Ymer 0 – 0 Luca Castelnuovo

Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · 2026-09-16

R16

Elias Ymer #197

Luca Castelnuovo #398

7-6 6-4

6 Aces 7

1 Double Faults 4

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

35 First Serve Won 37

12 Second Serve Won 16

2 Break Points Saved 6

3 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.6

Elias Ymer vs Luca Castelnuovo — Prediction