ATP tennis predict — Elias Ymer vs Federico Cina

Challenger Hard Jingshan challenger · R16 07:00

Predicted probability

Elias Ymer

Sweden

31.72%

Federico Cina

Italy

68.28%

Average Odds

3.29 / 1.30

Market probability

28.32% / 71.68%

Why This Prediction?

Federico Cina is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1720 vs 1649), a higher Elo rating (1750 vs 1685) and a stronger return game (37.9% vs 32.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1684.7 Elo 1749.9

1649.0 Elo (surface) 1719.5

235 Wins (Challenger) 47

92 Wins (surface) 31

7 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.956 Dominance ratio 0.973

192 Rank 150

30.5 Age 19.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Elias Ymer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Federico Cina

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–7L · 53.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Elias Ymer Federico Cina

1st Serve In %

60.0%

56.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

70.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.0%

45.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.5%

27.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.2%

55.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.9%

55.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.9%

65.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.3%

49.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.4%

32.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.0%

48.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.56

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Elias Ymer Federico Cina

Break Points Saved %

62.7%

52.4%

Break Points Converted %

39.6%

37.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.1%

55.1%

Break Points Converted %

31.7%

43.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Elias Ymer 0 – 1 Federico Cina

Hard Lexington challenger · 2026-08-03

1. round

Federico Cina #178

Elias Ymer #208

6-3 7-5

6 Aces 3

7 Double Faults 2

63 Service Points 63

28 First Serve In 34

21 First Serve Won 19

20 Second Serve Won 14

5 Break Points Saved 2

7 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.7

Elias Ymer vs Federico Cina — Prediction