ATP tennis predict — Elias Ymer vs Cristian Garin

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 2. round 18:30

Predicted probability

Elias Ymer

Sweden

25.73%

Cristian Garin

Chile

74.27%

Average Odds

1.90 / 1.84

Market probability

49.20% / 50.80%

Why This Prediction?

Cristian Garin is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1780 vs 1630), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1678 vs 1587) and a stronger return game (41.9% vs 31.2% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1630.4 Elo 1780.4

1586.6 Elo (surface) 1677.7

150 Wins 192

78 Wins (surface) 54

8 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 2

0.829 Dominance ratio 1.283

204 Rank 135

30.4 Age 30.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Elias Ymer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Cristian Garin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Elias Ymer Cristian Garin

1st Serve In %

60.0%

59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

73.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.0%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.5%

36.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.2%

53.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.5%

58.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.8%

67.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

51.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.6%

38.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.1%

53.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Elias Ymer Cristian Garin

Break Points Saved %

62.7%

59.4%

Break Points Converted %

39.6%

41.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.1%

52.5%

Break Points Converted %

33.9%

40.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Elias Ymer 0 – 2 Cristian Garin

Hard US Open · 2026-08-26

qualification - 2. round

Cristian Garin #135

Elias Ymer #204

6-2 7-6

2 Aces 5

5 Double Faults 2

74 Service Points 67

41 First Serve In 45

25 First Serve Won 34

14 Second Serve Won 10

5 Break Points Saved 4

9 Break Points Faced 6

12 Winners 18

30 Unforced Errors 34

1.8 Average Odds 1.9

Clay Oeiras 5 CH · 2025-05-12

R16

Cristian Garin #153

Elias Ymer #263

6-4 6-1

4 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 5

44 Service Points 62

28 First Serve In 34

21 First Serve Won 18

10 Second Serve Won 11

1 Break Points Saved 3

2 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Grass Wimbledon · 2022-06-27

R128

Cristian Garin #43

Elias Ymer #137

6-3 7-5 6-4

4 Aces 6

1 Double Faults 9

82 Service Points 104

52 First Serve In 53

41 First Serve Won 35

18 Second Serve Won 21

3 Break Points Saved 10

5 Break Points Faced 16