ATP tennis predict — Elias Ymer vs Alexis Galarneau

ATP Hard Chengdu · qualification - round of 16 07:00

Predicted probability

Elias Ymer

Sweden

42.51%

Alexis Galarneau

Canada

57.49%

Average Odds

2.40 / 1.54

Market probability

39.09% / 60.91%

Why This Prediction?

Alexis Galarneau is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1739 vs 1679), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1691 vs 1640) and a stronger return game (37.7% vs 32.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1678.5 Elo 1738.7

1640.5 Elo (surface) 1690.7

150 Wins 16

78 Wins (surface) 10

8 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.869 Dominance ratio 0.936

190 Rank 179

30.4 Age 27.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Elias Ymer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Alexis Galarneau

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Elias Ymer Alexis Galarneau

1st Serve In %

60.0%

62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

68.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.0%

49.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.5%

26.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.2%

48.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.65

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.5%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.8%

72.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

47.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.6%

23.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.1%

45.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.52

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Elias Ymer Alexis Galarneau

Break Points Saved %

62.7%

65.8%

Break Points Converted %

39.6%

32.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.1%

54.3%

Break Points Converted %

33.9%

43.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Elias Ymer 0 – 0 Alexis Galarneau

Hard Chengdu · 2026-09-22

qualification - round of 16

Alexis Galarneau #179

Elias Ymer #190

7-5 7-6

19 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 5

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

46 First Serve Won 41

14 Second Serve Won 16

6 Break Points Saved 6

8 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.4

Elias Ymer vs Alexis Galarneau — Prediction