ATP tennis predict — Egor Agafonov vs Taiyo Yamanaka

Challenger Hard Phan Thiet 4 challenger · qualification - 1. round 09:00

Predicted probability

Egor Agafonov

Russia

20.33%

Taiyo Yamanaka

Japan

79.67%

Average Odds

1.93 / 1.80

Market probability

48.26% / 51.74%

Why This Prediction?

Taiyo Yamanaka is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1483 vs 1378), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1487 vs 1406) and fewer double faults per game (0.12 vs 0.25).

Player Comparison

1377.9 Elo 1482.9

1406.1 Elo (surface) 1487.1

19 Wins (Challenger) 9

19 Wins (surface) 9

4 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.835 Dominance ratio 1.016

670 Rank 830

24.0 Age 25.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Egor Agafonov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-08-09.

Taiyo Yamanaka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-09-06.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Egor Agafonov Taiyo Yamanaka

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

62.2%

56.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.4%

72.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.8%

47.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%

31.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.0%

44.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.49

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Egor Agafonov Taiyo Yamanaka

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

61.6%

58.9%

Break Points Converted %

38.0%

43.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Egor Agafonov 0 – 0 Taiyo Yamanaka

Hard Phan Thiet 4 challenger · 2026-09-13

qualification - 1. round

Taiyo Yamanaka #830

Egor Agafonov #670

6-4 6-4

5 Aces 4

7 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

31 First Serve Won 24

7 Second Serve Won 16

4 Break Points Saved 2

7 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.8 Average Odds 1.9

Egor Agafonov vs Taiyo Yamanaka — Prediction