ATP tennis predict — Egor Agafonov vs Daniil Ostapenkov

Challenger Hard Astana 4 challenger · qualification - 1. round 08:45

Predicted probability

Egor Agafonov

Russia

44.52%

Daniil Ostapenkov

Belarus

55.48%

Average Odds

3.28 / 1.30

Market probability

28.38% / 71.62%

Why This Prediction?

Daniil Ostapenkov is the favorite because he has fewer double faults per game (0.22 vs 0.31), a higher Elo rating (1444 vs 1431) and a stronger return game (36.8% vs 32.4% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1431.4 Elo 1444.5

1465.0 Elo (surface) 1496.4

18 Wins (Challenger) 11

18 Wins (surface) 7

4 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.714 Dominance ratio 0.979

686 Rank 533

23.9 Age 23.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Egor Agafonov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-08-09.

Daniil Ostapenkov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-08-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Egor Agafonov Daniil Ostapenkov

1st Serve In %

—

52.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

59.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

34.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

29.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

55.2%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.12

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.56

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.2%

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.4%

74.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.8%

45.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%

25.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.0%

42.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.49

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Egor Agafonov Daniil Ostapenkov

Break Points Saved %

—

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

—

63.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

61.6%

49.2%

Break Points Converted %

38.0%

43.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Egor Agafonov 0 – 0 Daniil Ostapenkov

Hard Astana 4 challenger · 2026-08-09

qualification - 1. round

Egor Agafonov #686

Daniil Ostapenkov #533

3-1

0 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 2

10 Service Points 27

4 First Serve In 20

1 First Serve Won 13

4 Second Serve Won 3

1 Break Points Saved 5

2 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3.3 Average Odds 1.3

Egor Agafonov vs Daniil Ostapenkov — Prediction