ATP tennis predict — Edward Winter vs Mikael Arseneault

Challenger Hard Winnipeg challenger · qualification - round of 16

Predicted probability

Edward Winter

Australia

71.71%

Mikael Arseneault

Canada

28.29%

Average Odds

1.25 / 3.68

Market probability

74.65% / 25.35%

Why This Prediction?

Edward Winter is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1650 vs 1495), a higher Elo rating (1610 vs 1486) and a stronger return game (40.0% vs 38.6% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1609.8 Elo 1485.5

1650.4 Elo (surface) 1495.4

36 Wins (Challenger) 5

34 Wins (surface) 5

9 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.199 Dominance ratio 1.008

400 Rank 1081

21.8 Age 19.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Edward Winter

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Mikael Arseneault

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Edward Winter Mikael Arseneault

1st Serve In %

63.8%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

64.8%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.1%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.3%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.16

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.9%

64.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

67.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.8%

52.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.6%

32.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.8%

49.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.09

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Edward Winter Mikael Arseneault

Break Points Saved %

58.8%

—

Break Points Converted %

25.9%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.9%

62.2%

Break Points Converted %

38.6%

42.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Edward Winter 0 – 0 Mikael Arseneault

Hard Winnipeg challenger · 2026-07-20

qualification - round of 16

Mikael Arseneault #1081

Edward Winter #400

7-6 4-6 6-1

1 Aces 0

3 Double Faults 5

92 Service Points 88

66 First Serve In 53

38 First Serve Won 35

10 Second Serve Won 15

6 Break Points Saved 4

13 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3.7 Average Odds 1.2

Edward Winter vs Mikael Arseneault — Prediction