ATP tennis predict — Edward Winter vs Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes

ATP Hard Los Cabos · qualification - round of 16

Predicted probability

Edward Winter

Australia

81.18%

Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes

Mexico

18.82%

Average Odds

1.66 / 2.14

Market probability

56.32% / 43.68%

Why This Prediction?

Edward Winter is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1591 vs 1441), more career match wins (36 vs 2) and a stronger serve (67.2% vs 53.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1554.6 Elo 1490.4

1590.8 Elo (surface) 1441.2

2 Wins 1

2 Wins (surface) 0

2 Last 15 form 1

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.669 Dominance ratio 0.669

400 Rank 809

21.9 Age 21.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Edward Winter

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-06-29.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Edward Winter Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes

1st Serve In %

63.8%

61.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.8%

65.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.1%

67.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.3%

31.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.3%

53.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.16

0.29

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.00

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.9%

59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

62.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.8%

41.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.6%

36.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.8%

50.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.09

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Edward Winter Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes

Break Points Saved %

58.8%

71.4%

Break Points Converted %

25.9%

23.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.9%

47.2%

Break Points Converted %

38.6%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Edward Winter 0 – 0 Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes

Hard Los Cabos · 2026-07-26

qualification - round of 16

Edward Winter #680

Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes #-

3-6 6-4 6-2

2 Aces 4

4 Double Faults 0

94 Service Points 89

51 First Serve In 55

35 First Serve Won 36

20 Second Serve Won 23

10 Break Points Saved 5

13 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Edward Winter vs Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes — Prediction