ATP tennis predict — Edward Winter vs Gonzalo Bueno

Challenger Hard Kingston challenger · R16 20:00

Predicted probability

Edward Winter

Australia

71.78%

Gonzalo Bueno

Peru

28.22%

Average Odds

1.82 / 1.82

Market probability

50.00% / 50.00%

Why This Prediction?

Edward Winter is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1642 vs 1440), a stronger serve (66.0% vs 53.6% of service points won) and a stronger return game (44.6% vs 36.9% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1618.0 Elo 1674.2

1642.1 Elo (surface) 1439.8

40 Wins (Challenger) 104

38 Wins (surface) 3

10 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.311 Dominance ratio 0.795

355 Rank 178

21.9 Age 22.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Edward Winter

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Gonzalo Bueno

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Edward Winter Gonzalo Bueno

1st Serve In %

63.8%

61.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.8%

62.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.1%

51.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.3%

28.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.3%

53.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.16

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.9%

58.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

60.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.8%

45.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.6%

34.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.8%

43.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.09

0.12

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Edward Winter Gonzalo Bueno

Break Points Saved %

58.8%

68.8%

Break Points Converted %

25.9%

48.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.9%

64.6%

Break Points Converted %

38.6%

31.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Edward Winter 0 – 0 Gonzalo Bueno

Hard Kingston challenger · 2026-08-19

R16

Gonzalo Bueno #178

Edward Winter #355

6-4 6-2

0 Aces 0

3 Double Faults 3

61 Service Points 54

40 First Serve In 30

22 First Serve Won 24

11 Second Serve Won 12

7 Break Points Saved 1

11 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.8 Average Odds 1.8

Edward Winter vs Gonzalo Bueno — Prediction