ATP tennis predict — Edas Butvilas vs Moez Echargui

Challenger Hard Porto challenger · R16 13:30

Predicted probability

Edas Butvilas

Lithuania

68.36%

Moez Echargui

Tunisia

31.64%

Average Odds

1.40 / 2.79

Market probability

66.59% / 33.41%

Why This Prediction?

Edas Butvilas is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1760 vs 1650), a higher Elo rating (1749 vs 1673) and a stronger serve (64.4% vs 58.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1748.6 Elo 1672.7

1760.4 Elo (surface) 1650.2

91 Wins (Challenger) 99

70 Wins (surface) 50

11 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 2

0.881 Dominance ratio 0.989

203 Rank 371

22.2 Age 33.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Edas Butvilas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–7L · 46.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Moez Echargui

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–6L · 45.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Edas Butvilas Moez Echargui

1st Serve In %

62.3%

65.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.1%

66.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.2%

45.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.5%

25.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.3%

46.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.56

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.11

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.8%

55.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.5%

63.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.1%

55.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.1%

28.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.6%

55.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.49

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Edas Butvilas Moez Echargui

Break Points Saved %

51.6%

58.2%

Break Points Converted %

36.5%

39.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.7%

60.2%

Break Points Converted %

47.2%

40.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Edas Butvilas 1 – 2 Moez Echargui

Grass Wimbledon · 2026-06-22

qualification - 1. round

Moez Echargui #155

Edas Butvilas #226

3-6 7-5 6-3

10 Aces 4

0 Double Faults 2

80 Service Points 86

55 First Serve In 53

42 First Serve Won 39

13 Second Serve Won 19

2 Break Points Saved 3

5 Break Points Faced 5

26 Winners 17

14 Unforced Errors 17

3.0 Average Odds 1.4

Hard Olbia CH · 2025-10-13

R32

Edas Butvilas #300

Moez Echargui #145

6-4 6-2

1 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 2

51 Service Points 54

34 First Serve In 31

23 First Serve Won 20

11 Second Serve Won 9

0 Break Points Saved 6

1 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Porto CH · 2025-07-28

QF

Moez Echargui #312

Edas Butvilas #227

4-6 6-3 6-3

3 Aces 4

2 Double Faults 4

87 Service Points 87

47 First Serve In 53

30 First Serve Won 34

24 Second Serve Won 15

5 Break Points Saved 4

8 Break Points Faced 9