ATP tennis predict — Edas Butvilas vs Luca Potenza

Challenger Hard Mallorca challenger · QF 16:00

Predicted probability

Edas Butvilas

Lithuania

59.97%

Luca Potenza

Italy

40.03%

Average Odds

1.22 / 3.96

Market probability

76.45% / 23.55%

Why This Prediction?

Edas Butvilas is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1678 vs 1596), a higher Elo rating (1615 vs 1569) and more wins on hard courts (3 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1614.6 Elo 1568.7

1678.2 Elo (surface) 1596.1

87 Wins (Challenger) 55

66 Wins (surface) 32

10 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.886 Dominance ratio 0.989

195 Rank 488

22.1 Age 26.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Edas Butvilas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–6L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Luca Potenza

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-21.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Edas Butvilas Luca Potenza

1st Serve In %

62.3%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

74.1%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.2%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.5%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.3%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.56

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.11

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.8%

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.0%

65.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.3%

47.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.2%

29.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.1%

58.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.30

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Edas Butvilas Luca Potenza

Break Points Saved %

51.6%

—

Break Points Converted %

36.5%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.6%

63.0%

Break Points Converted %

46.9%

40.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Edas Butvilas 0 – 1 Luca Potenza

Hard Mallorca challenger · 2026-09-04

QF

Luca Potenza #488

Edas Butvilas #195

4-6 7-5 7-6

13 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 3

104 Service Points 101

68 First Serve In 66

47 First Serve Won 50

17 Second Serve Won 15

2 Break Points Saved 6

6 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

4.0 Average Odds 1.2

Hard Villena CH · 2025-09-29

R16

Luca Potenza #399

Edas Butvilas #291

6-1 6-4

1 Aces 11

2 Double Faults 5

47 Service Points 70

24 First Serve In 40

20 First Serve Won 26

16 Second Serve Won 12

0 Break Points Saved 13

0 Break Points Faced 16

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Edas Butvilas vs Luca Potenza — Prediction