ATP tennis predict — Dylan Dietrich vs Keegan Smith

Challenger Hard San Diego 2 challenger · R16 02:00

Predicted probability

Dylan Dietrich

Switzerland

55.43%

Keegan Smith

USA

44.57%

Average Odds

1.57 / 2.32

Market probability

59.64% / 40.36%

Why This Prediction?

Dylan Dietrich is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1760 vs 1651) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1637 vs 1622).

Player Comparison

1760.4 Elo 1650.6

1637.0 Elo (surface) 1621.9

17 Wins (Challenger) 106

7 Wins (surface) 96

10 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.932 Dominance ratio 0.730

409 Rank 194

22.0 Age 28.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Dylan Dietrich

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-07-07.

Keegan Smith

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Dylan Dietrich Keegan Smith

1st Serve In %

62.4%

71.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.4%

75.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

60.7%

61.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.8%

25.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.5%

45.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.64

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.2%

65.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.2%

69.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.3%

52.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.2%

20.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.2%

38.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Dylan Dietrich Keegan Smith

Break Points Saved %

60.0%

68.4%

Break Points Converted %

28.6%

34.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

61.3%

56.9%

Break Points Converted %

25.0%

29.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Dylan Dietrich and Keegan Smith have never played each other.

Dylan Dietrich vs Keegan Smith — Prediction